Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	year_ago	34		✓	0.636	0.0115	0.353
1	year_ago	34		✗	0	0	0
2	conserv_leader	72		✓	0.368	0.00418	0.117
2	conserv_leader	72		✗	0.395	0.00199	0.113
3	conserv_principl	71		✓	0.51	0.000398	0.00597
3	conserv_principl	71		✗	0.479	0	0.00498
4	conserv_movement	47		✓	0.209	0.00498	0.00279
4	conserv_movement	47		✗	0.782	0.000398	0.000995
5	polit_adversari	85		✓	0.338	0.00478	0.0533
5	polit_adversari	85		✗	0.601	0.00239	0
6	conserv_movement	58		✓	0.319	0.000199	0.000199
6	conserv_movement	58		✗	0.679	0.00179	0
7	good_time	3		✓	0.0161	0	0
7	good_time	3		✗	0.983	0.000597	0
8	great_nation	8		✓	0.0392	0	0.000995
8	great_nation	8		✗	0.96	0	0
9	presid_obama	18		✓	0.0826	0.000995	0.0424
9	presid_obama	18		✗	0.873	0	0.000995
10	unit_state	56		✓	0.274	0	0.00498
10	unit_state	56		✗	0.719	0	0.00219
11	__NUM___elect	56		✓	0.253	0.000398	0.000597
11	__NUM___elect	56		✗	0.746	0	0
12	american_polit	13		✓	0.0653	0.00338	0.0101
12	american_polit	13		✗	0.92	0.000398	0.000398
13	ronald_reagan	95		✓	0.331	0.00338	0.182
13	ronald_reagan	95		✗	0.478	0.000398	0.00458
14	religi_freedom	82		✓	0.0293	0.00219	0.84
14	religi_freedom	82		✗	0.0553	0.000199	0.073
15	same_time	192		✓	0.887	0.00239	0.0677
15	same_time	192		✗	0.0169	0	0.0265
16	__NUM___trillion	29		✓	0.187	0	0.00816
16	__NUM___trillion	29		✗	0.792	0	0.0131
17	trillion_dollar	0		✓	0.00139	0	0
17	trillion_dollar	0		✗	0.978	0	0.0209
18	net_worth	2		✓	0.00259	0	0.000398
18	net_worth	2		✗	0.977	0	0.0205
19	stimulu_plan	62		✓	0.000995	0	0.97
19	stimulu_plan	62		✗	0.0133	0	0.0159
20	creat_job	6		✓	0.000796	0	0.0488
20	creat_job	6		✗	0.00418	0	0.946
21	congression_democrat	3		✓	0.00876	0.000199	0.0235
21	congression_democrat	3		✗	0.00557	0.000398	0.962
22	rais_tax	113		✓	0.000796	0.00199	0.581
22	rais_tax	113		✗	0	0	0.416
23	higher_tax	19		✓	0.00915	0.00139	0.0989
23	higher_tax	19		✗	0.000398	0.00199	0.888
24	class_american	14		✓	0.0308	0.00259	0.0824
24	class_american	14		✗	0.00836	0.00219	0.874
25	capit_gain	13		✓	0.0153	0.000597	0.0649
25	capit_gain	13		✗	0.033	0.00239	0.884
26	econom_crisi	2		✓	0.00776	0	0.0728
26	econom_crisi	2		✗	0.0163	0	0.903
27	financi_sector	18		✓	0.0123	0.000398	0.0995
27	financi_sector	18		✗	0.0133	0	0.874
28	free_market	6		✓	0.000995	0.000199	0.0541
28	free_market	6		✗	0.00935	0.000199	0.935
29	largest_economi	18		✓	0.04	0.000398	0.0798
29	largest_economi	18		✗	0.00836	0	0.871
30	washington_politician	7		✓	0.00955	0.00139	0.0394
30	washington_politician	7		✗	0.0408	0.000398	0.908
31	polit_gain	21		✓	0.0243	0.00119	0.177
31	polit_gain	21		✗	0.0223	0.000597	0.775
32	free_enterpris	49		✓	0.000199	0	0.44
32	free_enterpris	49		✗	0	0	0.56
33	enterpris_system	0		✓	0	0	0.00458
33	enterpris_system	0		✗	0	0	0.995
34	free_market	23		✓	0.0484	0.000995	0.107
34	free_market	23		✗	0.000199	0	0.843
35	financi_system	13		✓	0.38	0.00617	0.0358
35	financi_system	13		✗	0.0501	0.000796	0.527
36	auto_industri	37		✓	0.0601	0.00617	0.0685
36	auto_industri	37		✗	0.409	0.00597	0.45
37	american_economi	104		✓	0.00338	0	0.825
37	american_economi	104		✗	0.00199	0.000199	0.169
38	invis_hand	4		✓	0.00119	0	0.0235
38	invis_hand	4		✗	0.00338	0	0.972
39	privat_sector	22		✓	0.00856	0	0.11
39	privat_sector	22		✗	0.00378	0	0.877
40	liber_democrat	72		✓	0.879	0.00239	0.038
40	liber_democrat	72		✗	0.00816	0	0.072
41	presid_obama	37		✓	0.182	0.00159	0.0601
41	presid_obama	37		✗	0.703	0.000199	0.0535
42	univers_pre	35		✓	0.239	0.00139	0.00657
42	univers_pre	35		✗	0.743	0	0.00995
43	univers_healthcar	13		✓	0.0115	0.000597	0.00139
43	univers_healthcar	13		✗	0.973	0.000995	0.0121
44	__NUM___billion	60		✓	0.0486	0	0
44	__NUM___billion	60		✗	0.951	0	0
45	billion_dollar	0		✓	0.000199	0	0
45	billion_dollar	0		✗	1	0	0
46	__NUM___dai	21		✓	0.263	0	0.0129
46	__NUM___dai	21		✗	0.724	0	0
47	__NUM___trillion	6		✓	0.0115	0	0.00716
47	__NUM___trillion	6		✗	0.969	0	0.0119
48	trillion_dollar	0		✓	0.000398	0	0.00159
48	trillion_dollar	0		✗	0.979	0	0.0191
49	unit_state	14		✓	0.391	0	0.0205
49	unit_state	14		✗	0.581	0	0.00716
50	middl_class	29		✓	0.0424	0.00139	0.683
50	middl_class	29		✗	0.269	0	0.00458
51	presid_obama	1		✓	0.0314	0.000398	0.00776
51	presid_obama	1		✗	0.31	0.00119	0.649
52	__NUM___billion	22		✓	0.531	0	0.0125
52	__NUM___billion	22		✗	0.324	0	0.132
53	billion_dollar	0		✓	0.000597	0	0.000398
53	billion_dollar	0		✗	0.855	0	0.144
54	govern_spend	27		✓	0.00955	0.0402	0.649
54	govern_spend	27		✗	0.159	0	0.142
55	congression_democrat	16		✓	0.00836	0.000398	0.185
55	congression_democrat	16		✗	0.084	0.0103	0.712
56	health_care_system	8		✓	0.0145	0.000199	0.0503
56	health_care_system	8		✗	0.0782	0.00438	0.852
57	person_respons	16		✓	0.0239	0	0.0963
57	person_respons	16		✗	0.0772	0.000796	0.802
58	feder_spend	12		✓	0.00139	0	0.165
58	feder_spend	12		✗	0.0185	0	0.815
59	rais_tax	58		✓	0.00159	0	0.0911
59	rais_tax	58		✗	0.00299	0	0.904
60	borrow_monei	2		✓	0.00677	0	0.00299
60	borrow_monei	2		✗	0.00478	0	0.985
61	conserv_principl	19		✓	0.911	0.000199	0.0412
61	conserv_principl	19		✗	0.00776	0	0.0396
62	govern_takeov	8		✓	0.0326	0	0.113
62	govern_takeov	8		✗	0.78	0	0.0746
63	health_care	2		✓	0.0718	0	0.00239
63	health_care	2		✗	0.807	0	0.119
64	social_secur_benefit	44		✓	0.148	0.000796	0.00836
64	social_secur_benefit	44		✗	0.78	0	0.0635
65	ag___NUM__	9		✓	0.0111	0.000199	0.00378
65	ag___NUM__	9		✗	0.916	0.000398	0.0681
66	consum_price	8		✓	0.00776	0.000796	0.00557
66	consum_price	8		✗	0.915	0.000199	0.0708
67	tax_rate	42		✓	0.0245	0.000199	0.14
67	tax_rate	42		✗	0.809	0	0.0269
68	moral_wrong	36		✓	0.288	0.00179	0.155
68	moral_wrong	36		✗	0.464	0	0.0915
69	charter_school	10		✓	0.252	0	0.00259
69	charter_school	10		✗	0.691	0	0.0543
70	school_choic	27		✓	0.044	0.000398	0.073
70	school_choic	27		✗	0.827	0	0.0557
71	school_district	24		✓	0.0362	0.000796	0.164
71	school_district	24		✗	0.677	0	0.121
72	high_time	11		✓	0.0103	0	0.431
72	high_time	11		✗	0.285	0	0.273
73	union_boss	9		✓	0.0289	0.000597	0.24
73	union_boss	9		✗	0.224	0	0.507
74	energi_independ	13		✓	0.00299	0	0.173
74	energi_independ	13		✗	0.158	0	0.666
75	american_citizen	21		✓	0.0768	0.00537	0.0812
75	american_citizen	21		✗	0.157	0	0.68
76	work_peopl	58		✓	0.778	0	0.000398
76	work_peopl	58		✗	0.221	0	0.000796
77	secret_ballot	21		✓	0.0155	0	0.000398
77	secret_ballot	21		✗	0.984	0	0
78	common_sens	17		✓	0.0127	0	0.000199
78	common_sens	17		✗	0.987	0	0
79	work_peopl	2		✓	0.00239	0	0.000796
79	work_peopl	2		✗	0.997	0	0
80	pai_back	15		✓	0.00915	0.000796	0.76
80	pai_back	15		✗	0.229	0	0.000796
81	union_boss	2		✓	0.000597	0	0.0243
81	union_boss	2		✗	0.225	0	0.75
82	american_worker	19		✓	0.00179	0.00338	0.25
82	american_worker	19		✗	0.0398	0	0.705
83	america_vote	4		✓	0.000796	0.00955	0.0316
83	america_vote	4		✗	0.0275	0.00378	0.927
84	govern_spend	14		✓	0.00458	0.00199	0.0911
84	govern_spend	14		✗	0.00736	0.00796	0.887
85	spend_program	0		✓	0.000199	0	0.00378
85	spend_program	0		✗	0.0121	0.00657	0.977
86	higher_tax	4		✓	0.00179	0.000199	0.0304
86	higher_tax	4		✗	0.0123	0.00498	0.95
87	make_america	65		✓	0.727	0.000199	0.158
87	make_america	65		✗	0.00119	0	0.114
88	conserv_principl	34		✓	0.358	0	0.00756
88	conserv_principl	34		✗	0.609	0	0.0253
89	barack_obama	77		✓	0.26	0.0378	0.214
89	barack_obama	77		✗	0.475	0	0.0137
90	presid_obama	18		✓	0.12	0.00159	0.0372
90	presid_obama	18		✗	0.662	0.0229	0.157
91	nation_secur	18		✓	0.198	0.000398	0.00896
91	nation_secur	18		✗	0.714	0.0135	0.0653
92	law_professor	63		✓	0.35	0	0
92	law_professor	63		✗	0.65	0	0
93	editori_board	2		✓	0.0133	0	0
93	editori_board	2		✗	0.987	0	0
94	law_enforc	25		✓	0.119	0	0.0171
94	law_enforc	25		✗	0.864	0	0
95	nation_secur	8		✓	0.0424	0.000995	0.0207
95	nation_secur	8		✗	0.919	0	0.0165
96	barack_obama	47		✓	0.0716	0.0169	0.615
96	barack_obama	47		✗	0.272	0.000597	0.0233
97	tv_interview	6		✓	0.0109	0	0.105
97	tv_interview	6		✗	0.258	0.00577	0.62
98	great_power	85		✓	0.0189	0	0.327
98	great_power	85		✗	0.0221	0	0.632
99	unit_state	15		✓	0.00597	0	0.0233
99	unit_state	15		✗	0.0316	0	0.939
100	presid_obama	5		✓	0.000597	0	0.0243
100	presid_obama	5		✗	0.0205	0	0.955
101	missil_defens	11		✓	0.000199	0	0.0217
101	missil_defens	11		✗	0.00139	0	0.977
102	nuclear_weapon	67		✓	0	0	0.0237
102	nuclear_weapon	67		✗	0	0	0.976
103	north_korea	3		✓	0	0	0.000995
103	north_korea	3		✗	0	0	0.999
104	missil_defens	18		✓	0.000398	0	0.00836
104	missil_defens	18		✗	0	0	0.991
105	earli_dai	16		✓	0.123	0.000796	0.126
105	earli_dai	16		✗	0.000199	0	0.75
106	attornei_gener	138		✓	0.734	0.0247	0.169
106	attornei_gener	138		✗	0.0448	0	0.0275
107	fellow_citizen	63		✓	0.269	0.000995	0.158
107	fellow_citizen	63		✗	0.474	0.00438	0.0935
108	make_america	29		✓	0.175	0	0.0444
108	make_america	29		✗	0.622	0.000199	0.159
109	free_men	28		✓	0.217	0.000199	0.0141
109	free_men	28		✗	0.691	0	0.0772
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	78

Mitt Romney

Cue-lag representation