Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	long_hour	316		✓	0.998	0.000199	0.00139
1	long_hour	316		✗	0	0	0
2	good_job	60		✓	0.263	0.000199	0.00995
2	good_job	60		✗	0.726	0	0.000199
3	work_hard	27		✓	0.122	0	0.0117
3	work_hard	27		✗	0.863	0	0.00358
4	america_futur	138		✓	0.495	0	0.0748
4	america_futur	138		✗	0.428	0	0.00199
5	__NUM___centuri	27		✓	0.185	0	0.00139
5	__NUM___centuri	27		✗	0.81	0	0.00318
6	creat_job	11		✓	0.0569	0	0.0261
6	creat_job	11		✗	0.914	0	0.00259
7	highli_skill	14		✓	0.0931	0	0
7	highli_skill	14		✗	0.907	0	0
8	skill_worker	0		✓	0.00517	0	0
8	skill_worker	0		✗	0.995	0	0
9	unit_state	27		✓	0.122	0	0.00299
9	unit_state	27		✗	0.875	0	0
10	higher_educ	24		✓	0.113	0	0
10	higher_educ	24		✗	0.887	0	0
11	year_colleg	8		✓	0.0328	0	0
11	year_colleg	8		✗	0.967	0	0
12	colleg_degre	0		✓	0.00498	0	0
12	colleg_degre	0		✗	0.995	0	0
13	commun_colleg	12		✓	0.0553	0	0
13	commun_colleg	12		✗	0.945	0	0
14	higher_educ	33		✓	0.141	0	0
14	higher_educ	33		✗	0.859	0	0
15	past___NUM___year	15		✓	0.0655	0	0.00418
15	past___NUM___year	15		✗	0.93	0	0
16	__MONEY___worth	35		✓	0.0484	0.000199	0.622
16	__MONEY___worth	35		✗	0.325	0	0.00398
17	student_loan	2		✓	0.0945	0	0.00478
17	student_loan	2		✗	0.368	0	0.533
18	young_peopl	33		✓	0.163	0	0.0818
18	young_peopl	33		✗	0.361	0	0.394
19	great_idea	37		✓	0.0131	0.000597	0.5
19	great_idea	37		✗	0.0687	0	0.418
20	small_busi	6		✓	0.00458	0.00179	0.0434
20	small_busi	6		✗	0.0557	0.000597	0.894
21	middl_class	21		✓	0.0511	0	0.0744
21	middl_class	21		✗	0.048	0.00139	0.825
22	class_famili	0		✓	0.00338	0	0.00378
22	class_famili	0		✗	0.0981	0.000995	0.894
23	young_peopl	8		✓	0.596	0	0.00756
23	young_peopl	8		✗	0.0987	0	0.298
24	local_busi	52		✓	0.456	0	0.00199
24	local_busi	52		✗	0.537	0	0.00537
25	law_school	42		✓	0.172	0.000199	0.000398
25	law_school	42		✗	0.828	0	0.000199
26	student_loan	33		✓	0.155	0	0.000597
26	student_loan	33		✗	0.844	0	0.000398
27	colleg_educ	33		✓	0.152	0	0
27	colleg_educ	33		✗	0.848	0	0
28	good_job	21		✓	0.102	0	0.00159
28	good_job	21		✗	0.897	0	0
29	student_loan	15		✓	0.0734	0	0
29	student_loan	15		✗	0.927	0	0
30	__NUM___year_ago	3		✓	0.0257	0	0.000398
30	__NUM___year_ago	3		✗	0.974	0	0
31	pretti_good	25		✓	0.121	0	0.00498
31	pretti_good	25		✗	0.874	0	0.000199
32	higher_educ	35		✓	0.155	0	0
32	higher_educ	35		✗	0.845	0	0
33	young_peopl	5		✓	0.0231	0	0.000796
33	young_peopl	5		✗	0.976	0	0
34	top_prioriti	62		✓	0.273	0	0.00139
34	top_prioriti	62		✗	0.725	0	0
35	colleg_educ	35		✓	0.158	0	0
35	colleg_educ	35		✗	0.842	0	0
36	work_famili	4		✓	0.0207	0	0.00199
36	work_famili	4		✗	0.977	0	0
37	month_ago	14		✓	0.0738	0	0.000796
37	month_ago	14		✗	0.925	0	0.000597
38	borrow_monei	42		✓	0.181	0	0.00119
38	borrow_monei	42		✗	0.817	0	0.000199
39	high_school	17		✓	0.0844	0	0
39	high_school	17		✗	0.916	0	0
40	school_student	0		✓	0.00478	0	0
40	school_student	0		✗	0.995	0	0
41	loan_program	27		✓	0.199	0	0
41	loan_program	27		✗	0.801	0	0
42	colleg_educ	11		✓	0.0549	0	0
42	colleg_educ	11		✗	0.945	0	0
43	colleg_tuition	11		✓	0.048	0	0
43	colleg_tuition	11		✗	0.952	0	0
44	commun_colleg	7		✓	0.0366	0	0
44	commun_colleg	7		✗	0.963	0	0
45	higher_educ	4		✓	0.0191	0	0
45	higher_educ	4		✗	0.981	0	0
46	america_futur	3		✓	0.0422	0	0.0121
46	america_futur	3		✗	0.946	0	0
47	young_peopl	50		✓	0.215	0	0.0127
47	young_peopl	50		✗	0.768	0	0.00378
48	fight_back	127		✓	0.412	0	0.181
48	fight_back	127		✗	0.403	0	0.00398
49	econom_crisi	4		✓	0.0211	0	0.0241
49	econom_crisi	4		✗	0.774	0	0.181
50	higher_educ	38		✓	0.337	0	0
50	higher_educ	38		✗	0.663	0	0
51	work_hard	4		✓	0.0229	0	0.000995
51	work_hard	4		✗	0.976	0	0
52	young_person	78		✓	0.323	0.000199	0.000199
52	young_person	78		✗	0.676	0	0
53	date_back	75		✓	0.307	0.000597	0.0127
53	date_back	75		✗	0.68	0	0
54	world_war_ii	11		✓	0.0657	0	0
54	world_war_ii	11		✗	0.934	0	0.000199
55	world_war_ii	23		✓	0.0955	0	0
55	world_war_ii	23		✗	0.904	0	0
56	student_loan	45		✓	0.193	0	0.00179
56	student_loan	45		✗	0.805	0	0
57	__NUM___centuri	20		✓	0.0907	0	0
57	__NUM___centuri	20		✗	0.909	0	0
58	colleg_educ	4		✓	0.0233	0	0
58	colleg_educ	4		✗	0.977	0	0
59	year_colleg	17		✓	0.078	0	0
59	year_colleg	17		✗	0.922	0	0
60	higher_educ	8		✓	0.0366	0	0
60	higher_educ	8		✗	0.963	0	0
61	unit_state	40		✓	0.172	0	0.0133
61	unit_state	40		✗	0.815	0	0
62	__NUM___million	67		✓	0.273	0	0.0149
62	__NUM___million	67		✗	0.71	0	0.00199
63	colleg_educ	5		✓	0.0356	0	0.000398
63	colleg_educ	5		✗	0.955	0	0.00896
64	econom_plan	11		✓	0.000597	0	0.983
64	econom_plan	11		✗	0.00657	0	0.00975
65	__NUM___million	28		✓	0.00935	0.000199	0.0963
65	__NUM___million	28		✗	0.00119	0	0.893
66	financi_aid	19		✓	0.000796	0	0.0746
66	financi_aid	19		✗	0.000597	0	0.924
67	__NUM___million	3		✓	0.000995	0	0.0121
67	__NUM___million	3		✗	0.000796	0	0.986
68	creat_job	14		✓	0.000597	0.000199	0.0448
68	creat_job	14		✗	0.000597	0	0.954
69	__MONEY___trillion	22		✓	0	0	0.0708
69	__MONEY___trillion	22		✗	0	0	0.929
70	tax_cut	1		✓	0.000199	0	0.00657
70	tax_cut	1		✗	0	0	0.993
71	young_peopl	83		✓	0.641	0	0.101
71	young_peopl	83		✗	0	0	0.258
72	student_loan	7		✓	0.0215	0	0.0374
72	student_loan	7		✗	0.596	0	0.345
73	corpor_tax	6		✓	0.0127	0.000199	0.211
73	corpor_tax	6		✗	0.402	0	0.374
74	young_peopl	11		✓	0.0607	0	0.0279
74	young_peopl	11		✗	0.386	0	0.525
75	tax_break	39		✓	0.000398	0	0.514
75	tax_break	39		✗	0.00478	0	0.481
76	privat_sector	46		✓	0	0	0.16
76	privat_sector	46		✗	0	0	0.84
77	econom_plan	25		✓	0.000995	0	0.0868
77	econom_plan	25		✗	0	0	0.912
78	good_invest	22		✓	0.501	0.00935	0.0398
78	good_invest	22		✗	0.00119	0	0.449
79	interest_rate	23		✓	0.545	0	0
79	interest_rate	23		✗	0.453	0	0.00239
80	student_loan	3		✓	0.0185	0	0.000199
80	student_loan	3		✗	0.98	0	0.000796
81	__NUM___million	29		✓	0.119	0	0.00657
81	__NUM___million	29		✗	0.874	0	0.000199
82	thousand_dollar	4		✓	0.0185	0.000199	0.000995
82	thousand_dollar	4		✗	0.975	0	0.00557
83	tax_credit	11		✓	0.0746	0	0
83	tax_credit	11		✗	0.925	0	0.000597
84	__NUM___year	17		✓	0.0947	0	0.00418
84	__NUM___year	17		✗	0.901	0	0.000398
85	tax_credit	6		✓	0.0328	0	0.000398
85	tax_credit	6		✗	0.965	0	0.00139
86	student_loan	15		✓	0.0854	0	0.0101
86	student_loan	15		✗	0.904	0	0.000398
87	taxpay_dollar	9		✓	0.0402	0	0.0328
87	taxpay_dollar	9		✗	0.917	0	0.00995
88	big_bank	2		✓	0.0117	0	0.032
88	big_bank	2		✗	0.914	0	0.0424
89	move_forward	75		✓	0.194	0.000199	0.404
89	move_forward	75		✗	0.35	0	0.0513
90	financi_aid	39		✓	0.043	0	0.408
90	financi_aid	39		✗	0.162	0	0.387
91	consum_protect	15		✓	0.0515	0.000199	0.0384
91	consum_protect	15		✗	0.192	0	0.718
92	student_loan	29		✓	0.0454	0	0.117
92	student_loan	29		✗	0.19	0	0.648
93	financi_aid	2		✓	0.00179	0	0.0283
93	financi_aid	2		✗	0.213	0	0.757
94	good_idea	36		✓	0.0563	0	0.0935
94	good_idea	36		✗	0.186	0	0.664
95	consum_protect	11		✓	0.0225	0	0.0291
95	consum_protect	11		✗	0.226	0	0.722
96	protect_agenc	0		✓	0.0123	0	0.00179
96	protect_agenc	0		✗	0.248	0	0.738
97	work_famili	12		✓	0.141	0.00279	0.0209
97	work_famili	12		✗	0.246	0	0.589
98	elementari_school	47		✓	0.666	0	0.00318
98	elementari_school	47		✗	0.315	0.000199	0.0157
99	__NUM___million	17		✓	0.0888	0.000199	0.00418
99	__NUM___million	17		✗	0.9	0	0.00657
100	commun_colleg	8		✓	0.0541	0	0
100	commun_colleg	8		✗	0.946	0	0
101	local_busi	6		✓	0.0398	0	0.000199
101	local_busi	6		✗	0.96	0	0
102	vote_booth	69		✓	0.321	0	0
102	vote_booth	69		✗	0.679	0	0
103	year_ago	4		✓	0.0235	0	0.00776
103	year_ago	4		✗	0.969	0	0
104	troop_home	47		✓	0.208	0	0
104	troop_home	47		✗	0.792	0	0
105	good_deal	15		✓	0.07	0	0.00418
105	good_deal	15		✗	0.926	0	0
106	gi_bill	22		✓	0.105	0	0
106	gi_bill	22		✗	0.895	0	0
107	colleg_educ	58		✓	0.253	0	0.000199
107	colleg_educ	58		✗	0.747	0	0
108	__MONEY___million	67		✓	0.143	0.00119	0.488
108	__MONEY___million	67		✗	0.367	0	0.000199
109	same_thing	47		✓	0.042	0	0.43
109	same_thing	47		✗	0.125	0	0.403
110	econom_plan	39		✓	0.000199	0	0.282
110	econom_plan	39		✗	0.000199	0	0.717
111	tax_cut	51		✓	0.0129	0.000995	0.152
111	tax_cut	51		✗	0.000199	0	0.834
112	__MONEY___million	35		✓	0.498	0	0.0615
112	__MONEY___million	35		✗	0.0107	0.000398	0.43
113	ballot_box	13		✓	0.235	0.000199	0.0167
113	ballot_box	13		✗	0.476	0	0.272
114	young_peopl	4		✓	0.0583	0	0.00637
114	young_peopl	4		✗	0.694	0	0.242
115	creat_job	70		✓	0.171	0.000995	0.353
115	creat_job	70		✗	0.31	0	0.165
116	middl_class	4		✓	0.0418	0.000199	0.0115
116	middl_class	4		✗	0.469	0.000398	0.477
117	american_peopl	29		✓	0.448	0	0.0143
117	american_peopl	29		✗	0.445	0	0.0931
118	fair_share	48		✓	0.283	0	0.00637
118	fair_share	48		✗	0.702	0	0.00856
119	american_peopl	20		✓	0.1	0	0.00577
119	american_peopl	20		✗	0.887	0	0.00657
120	young_peopl	30		✓	0.123	0	0.0275
120	young_peopl	30		✗	0.842	0	0.00776
121	web_site	70		✓	0.1	0	0.611
121	web_site	70		✗	0.263	0	0.0259
122	american_dream	60		✓	0.726	0	0.000995
122	american_dream	60		✗	0.27	0	0.00299
123	great_thing	63		✓	0.25	0	0.0503
123	great_thing	63		✗	0.698	0	0.00179
124	turn_back	36		✓	0.204	0	0
124	turn_back	36		✗	0.796	0	0.000199
125	good_teacher	14		✓	0.0649	0	0
125	good_teacher	14		✗	0.935	0	0
126	good_job	12		✓	0.0555	0	0.00358
126	good_job	12		✗	0.941	0	0
127	phone_call	67		✓	0.285	0	0
127	phone_call	67		✗	0.715	0	0
128	unit_state	27		✓	0.118	0	0.00179
128	unit_state	27		✗	0.88	0	0
129	god_bless	9		✓	0.0464	0	0
129	god_bless	9		✗	0.954	0	0
130	unit_state	7		✓	0.0378	0	0.00637
130	unit_state	7		✗	0.956	0	0
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	3

Barack Obama

Cue-lag representation