Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	republican_establish	141		✓	0.0199	0.768	0.212
1	republican_establish	141		✗	0	0	0
2	ronald_reagan	6		✓	0	0	0
2	ronald_reagan	6		✗	0.0231	0.606	0.371
3	great_nation	27		✓	0	0	0
3	great_nation	27		✗	0.0233	0.635	0.342
4	barri_goldwat	3		✓	0	0	0
4	barri_goldwat	3		✗	0.0253	0.639	0.336
5	republican_establish	18		✓	0	0	0
5	republican_establish	18		✗	0.0219	0.696	0.282
6	side_econom	9		✓	0	0	0
6	side_econom	9		✗	0.086	0.441	0.473
7	lower_tax	2		✓	0	0	0
7	lower_tax	2		✗	0.0161	0.0287	0.955
8	american_energi	6		✓	0	0	0
8	american_energi	6		✗	0	0	1
9	creat_job	6		✓	0	0	0
9	creat_job	6		✗	0.000995	0	0.999
10	gop_establish	9		✓	0	0	0
10	gop_establish	9		✗	0.0147	0.00199	0.983
11	conserv_idea	10		✓	0	0	0
11	conserv_idea	10		✗	0.0169	0.00139	0.982
12	creat___NUM__	9		✓	0	0	0
12	creat___NUM__	9		✗	0	0	1
13	__NUM___million_job	0		✓	0	0	0
13	__NUM___million_job	0		✗	0	0.000398	1
14	soviet_union	8		✓	0	0	0
14	soviet_union	8		✗	0.000597	0.157	0.843
15	white_hous	12		✓	0	0	0
15	white_hous	12		✗	0.00139	0.177	0.821
16	republican_establish	27		✓	0	0	0
16	republican_establish	27		✗	0	0.962	0.0382
17	hous_republican	27		✓	0	0	0
17	hous_republican	27		✗	0.000199	0.998	0.00159
18	republican_major	0		✓	0	0	0
18	republican_major	0		✗	0.000199	0.998	0.00159
19	american_histori	22		✓	0	0	0
19	american_histori	22		✗	0	0.999	0.000597
20	__NUM___million	2		✓	0	0	0
20	__NUM___million	2		✗	0	1	0
21	reform_welfar	5		✓	0	0	0
21	reform_welfar	5		✗	0	0.853	0.147
22	cut_tax	18		✓	0	0	0
22	cut_tax	18		✗	0.00119	0.141	0.858
23	capit_gain	4		✓	0	0	0
23	capit_gain	4		✗	0	0.0243	0.976
24	gain_tax	0		✓	0	0	0
24	gain_tax	0		✗	0	0.0241	0.976
25	tax_cut	0		✓	0	0	0
25	tax_cut	0		✗	0	0.226	0.774
26	__NUM___year	6		✓	0	0	0
26	__NUM___year	6		✗	0.000796	0.996	0.00358
27	__NUM___million	8		✓	0	0	0
27	__NUM___million	8		✗	0	1	0
28	republican_establish	20		✓	0	0	0
28	republican_establish	20		✗	0	1	0
29	presidenti_campaign	52		✓	0	0	0
29	presidenti_campaign	52		✗	0	1	0.000199
30	republican_establish	38		✓	0	0	0
30	republican_establish	38		✗	0	1	0.000199
31	croni_capit	5		✓	0	0	0
31	croni_capit	5		✗	0.000398	0.998	0.00139
32	wall_street	11		✓	0	0	0
32	wall_street	11		✗	0	1	0
33	tea_parti	42		✓	0	0	0
33	tea_parti	42		✗	0	1	0
34	republican_establish	3		✓	0	0	0
34	republican_establish	3		✗	0	1	0.000398
35	half_centuri	17		✓	0	0	0
35	half_centuri	17		✗	0	0.991	0.00896
36	conserv_movement	11		✓	0	0	0
36	conserv_movement	11		✗	0.000398	0.994	0.00557
37	world_war	81		✓	0	0	0
37	world_war	81		✗	0	0.999	0.00119
38	american_peopl	26		✓	0	0	0
38	american_peopl	26		✗	0.000199	0.998	0.00139
39	__NUM___month	2		✓	0	0	0
39	__NUM___month	2		✗	0.00498	0.988	0.00716
40	nazi_germani	10		✓	0	0	0
40	nazi_germani	10		✗	0.00498	0.987	0.00796
41	__NUM___month	9		✓	0	0	0
41	__NUM___month	9		✗	0.00517	0.988	0.00716
42	__NUM___year	5		✓	0	0	0
42	__NUM___year	5		✗	0.000398	0.999	0.000199
43	red_tape	43		✓	0	0	0
43	red_tape	43		✗	0.00139	0.989	0.00995
44	interest_group	10		✓	0	0	0
44	interest_group	10		✗	0.000995	0.993	0.00577
45	washington_establish	17		✓	0	0	0
45	washington_establish	17		✗	0.000199	1	0.000199
46	wall_street	3		✓	0	0	0
46	wall_street	3		✗	0	1	0
47	world_war	71		✓	0	0	0
47	world_war	71		✗	0	1	0
48	privat_sector	31		✓	0	0	0
48	privat_sector	31		✗	0.000199	0.998	0.00139
49	public_sector	20		✓	0	0	0
49	public_sector	20		✗	0.00279	0.985	0.0117
50	__NUM___million	88		✓	0	0	0
50	__NUM___million	88		✗	0.00139	0.99	0.00896
51	feder_govern	35		✓	0	0	0
51	feder_govern	35		✗	0.00239	0.974	0.0239
52	__NUM___million	4		✓	0	0	0
52	__NUM___million	4		✗	0.00259	0.985	0.0119
53	million_illeg	0		✓	0	0	0
53	million_illeg	0		✗	0.0295	0.815	0.155
54	illeg_immigr	0		✓	0	0	0
54	illeg_immigr	0		✗	0.0432	0.755	0.202
55	greatest_challeng	116		✓	0	0	0
55	greatest_challeng	116		✗	0.0699	0.688	0.242
56	largest_economi	41		✓	0	0	0
56	largest_economi	41		✗	0.0933	0.652	0.255
57	american_peopl	92		✓	0	0	0
57	american_peopl	92		✗	0.111	0.584	0.305
58	repeal_obamacar	63		✓	0	0	0
58	repeal_obamacar	63		✗	0.0615	0.0239	0.915
59	polit_system	48		✓	0	0	0
59	polit_system	48		✗	0.168	0.0197	0.813
60	inaugur_address	45		✓	0	0	0
60	inaugur_address	45		✗	0.229	0	0.771
61	execut_order	27		✓	0	0	0
61	execut_order	27		✗	0.224	0	0.776
62	white_hous	33		✓	0	0	0
62	white_hous	33		✗	0.224	0	0.776
63	execut_order	19		✓	0	0	0
63	execut_order	19		✗	0.241	0	0.759
64	prime_minist	24		✓	0	0	0
64	prime_minist	24		✗	0.259	0	0.741
65	american_peopl	20		✓	0	0	0
65	american_peopl	20		✗	0.262	0.00199	0.736
66	elect_night	9		✓	0	0	0
66	elect_night	9		✗	0.263	0.00179	0.735
67	execut_order	21		✓	0	0	0
67	execut_order	21		✗	0.263	0	0.737
68	state_depart	4		✓	0	0	0
68	state_depart	4		✗	0.265	0	0.735
69	ronald_reagan	25		✓	0	0	0
69	ronald_reagan	25		✗	0.262	0	0.738
70	mexico_citi	2		✓	0	0	0
70	mexico_citi	2		✗	0.262	0	0.738
71	execut_order	19		✓	0	0	0
71	execut_order	19		✗	0.262	0	0.738
72	obama_administr	10		✓	0	0	0
72	obama_administr	10		✗	0.235	0	0.765
73	presid_obama	14		✓	0	0	0
73	presid_obama	14		✗	0.162	0	0.838
74	creat_job	32		✓	0	0	0
74	creat_job	32		✗	0.000597	0	0.999
75	food_stamp	26		✓	0	0	0
75	food_stamp	26		✗	0.000199	0	1
76	presid_reagan	20		✓	0	0	0
76	presid_reagan	20		✗	0	0	1
77	creat___NUM__	9		✓	0	0	0
77	creat___NUM__	9		✗	0	0	1
78	__NUM___million_job	0		✓	0	0	0
78	__NUM___million_job	0		✗	0	0	1
79	presid_clinton	5		✓	0	0	0
79	presid_clinton	5		✗	0.000398	0	1
80	million_job	10		✓	0	0	0
80	million_job	10		✗	0	0	1
81	econom_growth	57		✓	0	0	0
81	econom_growth	57		✗	0	0	1
82	manufactur_base	21		✓	0	0	0
82	manufactur_base	21		✗	0.000796	0.00179	0.997
83	capit_gain	36		✓	0	0	0
83	capit_gain	36		✗	0	0.0117	0.988
84	gain_tax	0		✓	0	0	0
84	gain_tax	0		✗	0	0.0117	0.988
85	capit_gain	7		✓	0	0	0
85	capit_gain	7		✗	0	0.0117	0.988
86	unit_state	6		✓	0	0	0
86	unit_state	6		✗	0.000995	0.00259	0.996
87	american_system	44		✓	0	0	0
87	american_system	44		✗	0.00557	0.0115	0.983
88	train_program	55		✓	0	0	0
88	train_program	55		✗	0.206	0.00299	0.791
89	__NUM___week	18		✓	0	0	0
89	__NUM___week	18		✗	0.208	0.00159	0.79
90	pursu_happi	60		✓	0	0	0
90	pursu_happi	60		✗	0.0999	0.000796	0.899
91	environment_protect_agenc	17		✓	0	0	0
91	environment_protect_agenc	17		✗	0.0915	0.000199	0.908
92	common_sens	38		✓	0	0	0
92	common_sens	38		✗	0.142	0.000199	0.858
93	ga_price	21		✓	0	0	0
93	ga_price	21		✗	0.216	0	0.784
94	local_control	68		✓	0	0	0
94	local_control	68		✗	0.206	0.00796	0.786
95	drug_administr	21		✓	0	0	0
95	drug_administr	21		✗	0.202	0.0223	0.775
96	world_market	53		✓	0	0	0
96	world_market	53		✗	0.174	0.0127	0.813
97	corpor_tax	15		✓	0	0	0
97	corpor_tax	15		✗	0.000597	0	0.999
98	tax_rate	0		✓	0	0	0
98	tax_rate	0		✗	0	0	1
99	__MONEY___billion	18		✓	0	0	0
99	__MONEY___billion	18		✗	0.000199	0	1
100	gener_electr	29		✓	0	0	0
100	gener_electr	29		✗	0.00478	0.00259	0.993
101	pai_tax	3		✓	0	0	0
101	pai_tax	3		✗	0	0	1
102	death_tax	9		✓	0	0	0
102	death_tax	9		✗	0.000398	0.000597	0.999
103	pai___NUM___percent	29		✓	0	0	0
103	pai___NUM___percent	29		✗	0.0289	0.378	0.593
104	hong_kong	47		✓	0	0	0
104	hong_kong	47		✗	0.0398	0.825	0.136
105	red_tape	26		✓	0	0	0
105	red_tape	26		✗	0.0314	0.93	0.039
106	tax_cut	64		✓	0	0	0
106	tax_cut	64		✗	0.0117	0.913	0.0752
107	republican_parti	29		✓	0	0	0
107	republican_parti	29		✗	0.0559	0.93	0.0145
108	feder_budget	7		✓	0	0	0
108	feder_budget	7		✗	0.641	0.0852	0.274
109	consecut_year	3		✓	0	0	0
109	consecut_year	3		✗	0.644	0.0842	0.272
110	feder_budget	25		✓	0	0	0
110	feder_budget	25		✗	0.642	0.0826	0.276
111	rais_revenu	31		✓	0	0	0
111	rais_revenu	31		✗	0.469	0.0734	0.457
112	tax_increas	26		✓	0	0	0
112	tax_increas	26		✗	0.246	0.00219	0.752
113	trent_lott	10		✓	0	0	0
113	trent_lott	10		✗	0.3	0.00219	0.698
114	tax_collector	23		✓	0	0	0
114	tax_collector	23		✗	0.301	0.00159	0.697
115	welfar_state	3		✓	0	0	0
115	welfar_state	3		✗	0.00239	0	0.998
116	extra_monei	12		✓	0	0	0
116	extra_monei	12		✗	0.00139	0	0.999
117	tax_code	16		✓	0	0	0
117	tax_code	16		✗	0.00219	0	0.998
118	creat_job	2		✓	0	0	0
118	creat_job	2		✗	0.0225	0	0.978
119	american_peopl	52		✓	0	0	0
119	american_peopl	52		✗	0.00438	0.00179	0.994
120	barack_obama	2		✓	0	0	0
120	barack_obama	2		✗	0	0.00179	0.998
121	credit_card	1		✓	0	0	0
121	credit_card	1		✗	0.00139	0.000597	0.998
122	cut_spend	19		✓	0	0	0
122	cut_spend	19		✗	0	0	1
123	cut_tax	3		✓	0	0	0
123	cut_tax	3		✗	0.000199	0	1
124	econom_growth	3		✓	0	0	0
124	econom_growth	3		✗	0.000199	0	1
125	american_energi	9		✓	0	0	0
125	american_energi	9		✗	0.000398	0	1
126	left_offic	12		✓	0	0	0
126	left_offic	12		✗	0.605	0.00219	0.393
127	social_secur	2		✓	0	0	0
127	social_secur	2		✗	0.686	0.00159	0.312
128	food_stamp	23		✓	0	0	0
128	food_stamp	23		✗	0.0277	0	0.972
129	public_hous	11		✓	0	0	0
129	public_hous	11		✗	0.00219	0.000199	0.998
130	pai_tax	14		✓	0	0	0
130	pai_tax	14		✗	0	0	1
131	tax_increas	9		✓	0	0	0
131	tax_increas	9		✗	0	0	1
132	govern_spend	2		✓	0	0	0
132	govern_spend	2		✗	0.000199	0.000199	1
133	cut_spend	20		✓	0	0	0
133	cut_spend	20		✗	0	0	1
134	civil_servic	28		✓	0	0	0
134	civil_servic	28		✗	0.000398	0	1
135	save___MONEY__	24		✓	0	0	0
135	save___MONEY__	24		✗	0.000597	0	0.999
136	__MONEY___billion	0		✓	0	0	0
136	__MONEY___billion	0		✗	0.000199	0	1
137	feder_govern	7		✓	0	0	0
137	feder_govern	7		✗	0.000199	0.000199	1
138	trillion_dollar	9		✓	0	0	0
138	trillion_dollar	9		✗	0.000199	0	1
139	american_system	27		✓	0	0	0
139	american_system	27		✗	0.000398	0.00159	0.998
140	cut_spend	9		✓	0	0	0
140	cut_spend	9		✗	0	0	1
141	__MONEY___billion	53		✓	0	0	0
141	__MONEY___billion	53		✗	0.000199	0	1
142	trillion_dollar	20		✓	0	0	0
142	trillion_dollar	20		✗	0.00398	0	0.996
143	tenth_amend	12		✓	0	0	0
143	tenth_amend	12		✗	0.532	0.00219	0.465
144	return_power	35		✓	0	0	0
144	return_power	35		✗	0.536	0.000597	0.463
145	back_home	1		✓	0	0	0
145	back_home	1		✗	0.271	0	0.729
146	american_system	22		✓	0	0	0
146	american_system	22		✗	0.0426	0.00617	0.951
147	__MONEY___billion	18		✓	0	0	0
147	__MONEY___billion	18		✗	0.0432	0.000398	0.956
148	american_peopl	29		✓	0	0	0
148	american_peopl	29		✗	0.153	0.0639	0.783
149	free_market	3		✓	0	0	0
149	free_market	3		✗	0.108	0.0412	0.85
150	market_work	0		✓	0	0	0
150	market_work	0		✗	0.03	0.0259	0.944
151	north_dakota	31		✓	0	0	0
151	north_dakota	31		✗	0.000199	0	1
152	__NUM___time	3		✓	0	0	0
152	__NUM___time	3		✗	0	0	1
153	year_ago	11		✓	0	0	0
153	year_ago	11		✗	0	0	1
154	__NUM___time	2		✓	0	0	0
154	__NUM___time	2		✗	0	0	1
155	half_time	24		✓	0	0	0
155	half_time	24		✗	0.000597	0	0.999
156	american_energi	17		✓	0	0	0
156	american_energi	17		✗	0.000597	0	0.999
157	ga_station	15		✓	0	0	0
157	ga_station	15		✗	0.843	0	0.157
158	futur_presid	19		✓	0	0	0
158	futur_presid	19		✗	0.804	0.000199	0.196
159	social_secur	21		✓	0	0	0
159	social_secur	21		✗	0.79	0	0.21
160	save_account	1		✓	0	0	0
160	save_account	1		✗	0.785	0	0.215
161	young_american	2		✓	0	0	0
161	young_american	2		✗	0.786	0	0.214
162	social_secur	3		✓	0	0	0
162	social_secur	3		✗	0.786	0	0.214
163	senior_citizen	3		✓	0	0	0
163	senior_citizen	3		✗	0.695	0.00139	0.304
164	trust_fund	32		✓	0	0	0
164	trust_fund	32		✗	0.545	0.0231	0.432
165	barack_obama	11		✓	0	0	0
165	barack_obama	11		✗	0.126	0.194	0.679
166	feder_reserv	14		✓	0	0	0
166	feder_reserv	14		✗	0.129	0.216	0.655
167	ronald_reagan	60		✓	0	0	0
167	ronald_reagan	60		✗	0.0183	0.0328	0.949
168	wage_war	46		✓	0	0	0
168	wage_war	46		✗	0.0151	0	0.985
169	white_hous	37		✓	0	0	0
169	white_hous	37		✗	0.0123	0.000199	0.987
170	religi_liberti	43		✓	0	0	0
170	religi_liberti	43		✗	0.0117	0.000199	0.988
171	barack_obama	16		✓	0	0	0
171	barack_obama	16		✗	0.0121	0	0.988
172	wage_war	34		✓	0	0	0
172	wage_war	34		✗	0.0181	0	0.982
173	cathol_church	3		✓	0	0	0
173	cathol_church	3		✗	0.084	0.000199	0.916
174	year_period	70		✓	0	0	0
174	year_period	70		✗	0.136	0.000597	0.864
175	jimmi_carter	119		✓	0	0	0
175	jimmi_carter	119		✗	0.157	0	0.843
176	bin_laden	17		✓	0	0	0
176	bin_laden	17		✗	0.387	0.0111	0.602
177	nation_debat	54		✓	0	0	0
177	nation_debat	54		✗	0.373	0.00836	0.619
178	radic_islamist	16		✓	0	0	0
178	radic_islamist	16		✗	0.288	0.00279	0.709
179	republican_nomin	35		✓	0	0	0
179	republican_nomin	35		✗	0.0424	0.00318	0.954
180	food_stamp	22		✓	0	0	0
180	food_stamp	22		✗	0.00139	0	0.999
181	defend_america	85		✓	0	0	0
181	defend_america	85		✗	0.000995	0	0.999
182	federalist_paper	38		✓	0	0	0
182	federalist_paper	38		✗	0	0	1
183	saul_alinski	16		✓	0	0	0
183	saul_alinski	16		✗	0	0.000995	0.999
184	barack_obama	2		✓	0	0	0
184	barack_obama	2		✗	0	0.517	0.483
185	rick_perri	109		✓	0	0	0
185	rick_perri	109		✗	0.00358	0.968	0.0281
186	herman_cain	2		✓	0	0	0
186	herman_cain	2		✗	0	0.987	0.0129
187	republican_establish	92		✓	0	0	0
187	republican_establish	92		✗	0	0.984	0.0163
188	good_luck	29		✓	0	0	0
188	good_luck	29		✗	0	0.000597	0.999
189	god_bless	3		✓	0	0	0
189	god_bless	3		✗	0.000199	0	1
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	4

Newt Gingrich

Cue-lag representation