Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	big_fan	77		✓	0.928	0.0167	0.0549
1	big_fan	77		✗	0	0	0
2	long_time	5		✓	0.0527	0	0.00318
2	long_time	5		✗	0.904	0.00338	0.0366
3	pretti_good	117		✓	0.492	0	0.0235
3	pretti_good	117		✗	0.482	0	0.00219
4	__NUM___year	26		✓	0.139	0	0.00418
4	__NUM___year	26		✗	0.852	0	0.00557
5	high_school	5		✓	0.034	0	0
5	high_school	5		✗	0.966	0	0.000199
6	state_senat	181		✓	0.635	0	0
6	state_senat	181		✗	0.365	0	0
7	peopl_thought	7		✓	0.0336	0.00219	0.00279
7	peopl_thought	7		✗	0.961	0	0
8	state_legisl	33		✓	0.0947	0.000398	0.00776
8	state_legisl	33		✗	0.895	0.00139	0.000995
9	__NUM___hour	21		✓	0.424	0	0.00517
9	__NUM___hour	21		✗	0.57	0	0.000597
10	world_war_ii	34		✓	0.18	0	0
10	world_war_ii	34		✗	0.82	0	0
11	assembl_line	23		✓	0.109	0	0.00219
11	assembl_line	23		✗	0.889	0	0
12	colleg_educ	28		✓	0.121	0	0
12	colleg_educ	28		✗	0.879	0	0
13	gi_bill	3		✓	0.0189	0	0
13	gi_bill	3		✗	0.981	0	0
14	singl_mom	23		✓	0.0995	0	0
14	singl_mom	23		✗	0.9	0	0
15	collar_worker	99		✓	0.398	0	0
15	collar_worker	99		✗	0.602	0	0
16	basic_idea	52		✓	0.235	0	0.00338
16	basic_idea	52		✗	0.762	0	0
17	work_hard	6		✓	0.0322	0	0.00119
17	work_hard	6		✗	0.964	0	0.00219
18	decent_wage	79		✓	0.327	0	0.0101
18	decent_wage	79		✗	0.662	0	0
19	spend_time	49		✓	0.222	0.000199	0.000199
19	spend_time	49		✗	0.777	0	0
20	young_peopl	61		✓	0.259	0	0.00299
20	young_peopl	61		✗	0.738	0	0
21	work_harder	33		✓	0.15	0	0.000597
21	work_harder	33		✗	0.849	0	0.000199
22	health_care	6		✓	0.0283	0	0.00697
22	health_care	6		✗	0.964	0	0.000597
23	middl_class	30		✓	0.142	0.000398	0.043
23	middl_class	30		✗	0.81	0	0.00458
24	meet_peopl	45		✓	0.23	0	0
24	meet_peopl	45		✗	0.77	0	0
25	same_kind	19		✓	0.0836	0	0.00637
25	same_kind	19		✗	0.91	0	0
26	american_dream	17		✓	0.0999	0	0.000398
26	american_dream	17		✗	0.899	0	0.000398
27	econom_crisi	161		✓	0.0233	0	0.962
27	econom_crisi	161		✗	0.0145	0	0.000199
28	push_back	15		✓	0.00557	0.000199	0.0623
28	push_back	15		✗	0.0229	0	0.909
29	auto_industri	12		✓	0	0	0.0691
29	auto_industri	12		✗	0.000398	0	0.931
30	american_worker	12		✓	0	0	0.0454
30	american_worker	12		✗	0	0	0.955
31	american_industri	4		✓	0	0	0.0165
31	american_industri	4		✗	0	0	0.983
32	manufactur_job	35		✓	0	0	0.113
32	manufactur_job	35		✗	0	0	0.887
33	job_growth	0		✓	0	0	0.00239
33	job_growth	0		✗	0	0	0.998
34	renew_energi	29		✓	0.64	0	0.0326
34	renew_energi	29		✗	0	0	0.327
35	hous_bubbl	62		✓	0.519	0	0.00219
35	hous_bubbl	62		✗	0.479	0	0.000199
36	bubbl_burst	0		✓	0.00418	0	0
36	bubbl_burst	0		✗	0.993	0	0.00239
37	middl_class	38		✓	0.162	0.000995	0.0348
37	middl_class	38		✗	0.8	0	0.00159
38	start_work	32		✓	0.165	0	0.000597
38	start_work	32		✗	0.833	0	0.00199
39	special_interest	49		✓	0.206	0	0.00557
39	special_interest	49		✗	0.787	0	0.00119
40	cut_tax	12		✓	0	0.000398	0.994
40	cut_tax	12		✗	0.000199	0	0.00537
41	__MONEY___trillion	3		✓	0	0	0.0107
41	__MONEY___trillion	3		✗	0	0	0.989
42	econom_plan	54		✓	0	0	0.177
42	econom_plan	54		✗	0	0	0.823
43	web_site	10		✓	0	0	0.033
43	web_site	10		✗	0	0	0.967
44	__MONEY___trillion	7		✓	0	0	0.0233
44	__MONEY___trillion	7		✗	0	0	0.977
45	tax_cut	1		✓	0	0	0.00836
45	tax_cut	1		✗	0	0	0.992
46	bush_tax_cut	11		✓	0	0	0.0362
46	bush_tax_cut	11		✗	0	0	0.964
47	job_train	26		✓	0.000995	0	0.0872
47	job_train	26		✗	0	0	0.912
48	train_program	0		✓	0	0	0.00318
48	train_program	0		✗	0.000796	0	0.996
49	voucher_program	6		✓	0	0	0.0223
49	voucher_program	6		✗	0	0	0.978
50	econom_theori	6		✓	0.00697	0	0.0229
50	econom_theori	6		✗	0	0	0.97
51	financi_crisi	30		✓	0.0253	0.000199	0.0951
51	financi_crisi	30		✗	0.00418	0	0.875
52	cathol_church	104		✓	0.862	0.000398	0.0404
52	cathol_church	104		✗	0.0169	0	0.0806
53	govern_program	18		✓	0.0537	0	0.00915
53	govern_program	18		✗	0.856	0	0.0814
54	good_neighbor	3		✓	0.0738	0	0.000199
54	good_neighbor	3		✗	0.909	0	0.0171
55	care_deepli	4		✓	0.00378	0	0.000995
55	care_deepli	4		✗	0.979	0	0.0161
56	individu_respons	64		✓	0.142	0	0.0165
56	individu_respons	64		✗	0.838	0	0.00299
57	construct_worker	80		✓	0.272	0	0.643
57	construct_worker	80		✗	0.0718	0	0.0131
58	creat_job	69		✓	0.144	0.00239	0.252
58	creat_job	69		✗	0.16	0	0.442
59	qualiti_educ	57		✓	0.621	0.00517	0.0336
59	qualiti_educ	57		✗	0.227	0.000796	0.112
60	__NUM___million	25		✓	0.435	0.000199	0.0171
60	__NUM___million	25		✗	0.501	0.000398	0.0462
61	commun_colleg	10		✓	0.117	0	0
61	commun_colleg	10		✗	0.883	0	0
62	young_person	23		✓	0.119	0	0.000199
62	young_person	23		✗	0.881	0	0
63	tax_law	67		✓	0.0173	0.0115	0.92
63	tax_law	67		✗	0.0505	0	0.000398
64	tax_break	3		✓	0	0	0.0858
64	tax_break	3		✗	0.00318	0.000199	0.911
65	job_oversea	6		✓	0	0	0.0245
65	job_oversea	6		✗	0	0	0.976
66	tax_break	5		✓	0	0	0.0195
66	tax_break	5		✗	0	0	0.98
67	unit_state	22		✓	0.03	0	0.0667
67	unit_state	22		✗	0	0	0.903
68	construct_worker	22		✓	0.00796	0	0.0539
68	construct_worker	22		✗	0.0131	0	0.925
69	energi_effici	38		✓	0.00955	0	0.042
69	energi_effici	38		✗	0.0119	0	0.937
70	health_care	147		✓	0.977	0	0.00697
70	health_care	147		✗	0.0159	0	0
71	health_insur	16		✓	0.0197	0	0
71	health_insur	16		✗	0.98	0	0
72	insur_compani	2		✓	0	0	0
72	insur_compani	2		✗	1	0	0
73	young_peopl	22		✓	0.00239	0	0
73	young_peopl	22		✗	0.998	0	0
74	health_insur	8		✓	0.00119	0	0.000199
74	health_insur	8		✗	0.999	0	0
75	__NUM___year	7		✓	0.00557	0	0
75	__NUM___year	7		✗	0.994	0	0
76	senior_citizen	3		✓	0.00179	0	0
76	senior_citizen	3		✗	0.998	0	0
77	prescript_drug	7		✓	0.000199	0	0
77	prescript_drug	7		✗	1	0	0
78	health_insur	14		✓	0.000597	0	0
78	health_insur	14		✗	0.999	0	0
79	suprem_court	22		✓	0.00239	0	0
79	suprem_court	22		✗	0.998	0	0
80	move_forward	9		✓	0.00498	0	0
80	move_forward	9		✗	0.995	0	0
81	__NUM___year	8		✓	0.00279	0	0.000199
81	__NUM___year	8		✗	0.997	0	0
82	health_care	18		✓	0.00119	0	0
82	health_care	18		✗	0.999	0	0
83	lower_cost	5		✓	0.000199	0	0
83	lower_cost	5		✗	1	0	0
84	polit_argument	13		✓	0.0221	0.00876	0.204
84	polit_argument	13		✗	0.765	0	0
85	wall_street	18		✓	0.00796	0	0.799
85	wall_street	18		✗	0.00259	0	0.19
86	wall_street_bank	12		✓	0	0.000199	0.0563
86	wall_street_bank	12		✗	0.000199	0	0.943
87	tax_cut	68		✓	0.0527	0.00657	0.209
87	tax_cut	68		✗	0	0.000199	0.732
88	public_school	14		✓	0.577	0.000796	0.0171
88	public_school	14		✗	0.0484	0.00318	0.353
89	student_loan	11		✓	0.214	0	0.00876
89	student_loan	11		✗	0.589	0	0.188
90	young_peopl	8		✓	0.046	0	0.0161
90	young_peopl	8		✗	0.762	0	0.176
91	middl_class	50		✓	0.0398	0.000199	0.682
91	middl_class	50		✗	0.122	0	0.155
92	class_famili	24		✓	0.000199	0	0.227
92	class_famili	24		✗	0.00179	0	0.771
93	higher_tax	3		✓	0	0	0.0133
93	higher_tax	3		✗	0	0	0.987
94	tax_cut	5		✓	0	0	0.0187
94	tax_cut	5		✗	0	0	0.981
95	health_care	33		✓	0.00597	0	0.111
95	health_care	33		✗	0	0	0.883
96	manufactur_job	5		✓	0	0	0.0263
96	manufactur_job	5		✗	0	0	0.974
97	job_back	0		✓	0.000199	0	0.00279
97	job_back	0		✗	0	0	0.997
98	american_energi	24		✓	0.00378	0	0.0824
98	american_energi	24		✗	0	0	0.914
99	foreign_oil	6		✓	0.000199	0	0.00597
99	foreign_oil	6		✗	0.00159	0	0.992
100	middl_class	56		✓	0.831	0.000597	0.154
100	middl_class	56		✗	0.00179	0	0.0125
101	work_hard	21		✓	0.206	0	0.00517
101	work_hard	21		✗	0.754	0	0.0352
102	__NUM___month	47		✓	0.238	0	0.00259
102	__NUM___month	47		✗	0.757	0	0.00239
103	neg_ad	10		✓	0.0525	0	0
103	neg_ad	10		✗	0.947	0	0
104	special_interest	132		✓	0.5	0	0.000398
104	special_interest	132		✗	0.499	0	0
105	barack_obama	56		✓	0.231	0	0
105	barack_obama	56		✗	0.769	0	0
106	state_senat	23		✓	0.108	0	0
106	state_senat	23		✗	0.892	0	0
107	ordinari_peopl	64		✓	0.277	0.000199	0.000597
107	ordinari_peopl	64		✗	0.722	0	0
108	phone_call	35		✓	0.161	0	0
108	phone_call	35		✗	0.839	0	0
109	american_peopl	4		✓	0.0229	0	0.000995
109	american_peopl	4		✗	0.976	0	0
110	__NUM___month	65		✓	0.264	0	0.0181
110	__NUM___month	65		✗	0.718	0	0
111	work_hard	49		✓	0.222	0	0.00597
111	work_hard	49		✗	0.77	0	0.00259
112	singl_dai	91		✓	0.362	0	0.0101
112	singl_dai	91		✗	0.627	0	0.000398
113	phone_call	79		✓	0.336	0	0
113	phone_call	79		✗	0.664	0	0
114	unit_state	27		✓	0.12	0	0.00259
114	unit_state	27		✗	0.878	0	0
115	god_bless	13		✓	0.0627	0	0
115	god_bless	13		✗	0.937	0	0
116	god_bless_america	4		✓	0.0221	0	0
116	god_bless_america	4		✗	0.978	0	0
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	2

Barack Obama

Cue-lag representation