Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	newt_gingrich	1		✓	0.396	0.00697	0.597
1	newt_gingrich	1		✗	0	0	0
2	american_peopl	13		✓	0	0	0
2	american_peopl	13		✗	0.523	0.00657	0.47
3	nation_secur	83		✓	0	0	0
3	nation_secur	83		✗	0.609	0.00159	0.39
4	feder_budget	19		✓	0	0	0
4	feder_budget	19		✗	0.649	0.00299	0.348
5	american_peopl	25		✓	0	0	0
5	american_peopl	25		✗	0.395	0.00239	0.603
6	saudi_arabia	18		✓	0	0	0
6	saudi_arabia	18		✗	0.00896	0	0.991
7	nation_secur	23		✓	0	0	0
7	nation_secur	23		✗	0.00975	0	0.99
8	pai_job	18		✓	0	0	0
8	pai_job	18		✗	0.000398	0	1
9	dramat_increas	60		✓	0	0	0
9	dramat_increas	60		✗	0.000199	0.000199	1
10	feder_revenu	2		✓	0	0	0
10	feder_revenu	2		✗	0.00498	0.00557	0.989
11	tax_increas	6		✓	0	0	0
11	tax_increas	6		✗	0.00239	0.00279	0.995
12	feder_govern	8		✓	0	0	0
12	feder_govern	8		✗	0.00418	0.0297	0.966
13	histor_fact	157		✓	0	0	0
13	histor_fact	157		✗	0.0149	0.0734	0.912
14	america_futur	11		✓	0	0	0
14	america_futur	11		✗	0.0155	0.127	0.858
15	north_dakota	12		✓	0	0	0
15	north_dakota	12		✗	0.000199	0	1
16	tremend_amount	16		✓	0	0	0
16	tremend_amount	16		✗	0	0	1
17	__NUM___time	30		✓	0	0	0
17	__NUM___time	30		✗	0	0	1
18	north_dakota	49		✓	0	0	0
18	north_dakota	49		✗	0	0	1
19	privat_land	5		✓	0	0	0
19	privat_land	5		✗	0	0	1
20	busi_leader	20		✓	0	0	0
20	busi_leader	20		✗	0.169	0.000597	0.83
21	offici_unemploy	43		✓	0	0	0
21	offici_unemploy	43		✗	0.203	0.000199	0.797
22	unemploy_rate	0		✓	0	0	0
22	unemploy_rate	0		✗	0.221	0	0.779
23	north_dakota	2		✓	0	0	0
23	north_dakota	2		✗	0.156	0	0.844
24	good_job	42		✓	0	0	0
24	good_job	42		✗	0.418	0.00139	0.581
25	__NUM___dollar	4		✓	0	0	0
25	__NUM___dollar	4		✗	0.367	0.00279	0.63
26	econom_growth	77		✓	0	0	0
26	econom_growth	77		✗	0.161	0.000398	0.838
27	state_govern	13		✓	0	0	0
27	state_govern	13		✗	0.035	0.000597	0.964
28	north_dakota	2		✓	0	0	0
28	north_dakota	2		✗	0.00975	0	0.99
29	tax_cut	5		✓	0	0	0
29	tax_cut	5		✗	0.00119	0.00418	0.995
30	billion_dollar	12		✓	0	0	0
30	billion_dollar	12		✗	0.0452	0.00259	0.952
31	state_budget	6		✓	0	0	0
31	state_budget	6		✗	0.0501	0.00119	0.949
32	__MONEY___billion	4		✓	0	0	0
32	__MONEY___billion	4		✗	0.00836	0	0.992
33	__NUM___state	32		✓	0	0	0
33	__NUM___state	32		✗	0.00736	0	0.993
34	unit_state	8		✓	0	0	0
34	unit_state	8		✗	0.00259	0	0.997
35	north_dakota	2		✓	0	0	0
35	north_dakota	2		✗	0.000199	0	1
36	unit_state	26		✓	0	0	0
36	unit_state	26		✗	0.000597	0	0.999
37	saudi_arabia	40		✓	0	0	0
37	saudi_arabia	40		✗	0.000398	0	1
38	natur_ga	27		✓	0	0	0
38	natur_ga	27		✗	0	0	1
39	peopl_thought	30		✓	0	0	0
39	peopl_thought	30		✗	0	0	1
40	year___NUM__	13		✓	0	0	0
40	year___NUM__	13		✗	0	0	1
41	natur_ga	4		✓	0	0	0
41	natur_ga	4		✗	0	0	1
42	__NUM___peopl	35		✓	0	0	0
42	__NUM___peopl	35		✗	0	0	1
43	peopl_thought	0		✓	0	0	0
43	peopl_thought	0		✗	0	0	1
44	natur_ga	15		✓	0	0	0
44	natur_ga	15		✗	0	0	1
45	middl_east	4		✓	0	0	0
45	middl_east	4		✗	0	0	1
46	natur_ga	124		✓	0	0	0
46	natur_ga	124		✗	0	0	1
47	same_time	4		✓	0	0	0
47	same_time	4		✗	0.000398	0	1
48	tremend_amount	51		✓	0	0	0
48	tremend_amount	51		✗	0	0	1
49	natur_ga	2		✓	0	0	0
49	natur_ga	2		✗	0	0	1
50	hundr_year	18		✓	0	0	0
50	hundr_year	18		✗	0	0	1
51	natur_ga	3		✓	0	0	0
51	natur_ga	3		✗	0	0	1
52	hundr_year	18		✓	0	0	0
52	hundr_year	18		✗	0	0	1
53	natur_ga	17		✓	0	0	0
53	natur_ga	17		✗	0	0	1
54	middl_east	3		✓	0	0	0
54	middl_east	3		✗	0.000199	0	1
55	natur_ga	22		✓	0	0	0
55	natur_ga	22		✗	0.000199	0	1
56	make_monei	7		✓	0	0	0
56	make_monei	7		✗	0.00219	0.000199	0.998
57	natur_ga	2		✓	0	0	0
57	natur_ga	2		✗	0.000199	0	1
58	peopl_thought	2		✓	0	0	0
58	peopl_thought	2		✗	0.000199	0	1
59	__NUM___year_ago	7		✓	0	0	0
59	__NUM___year_ago	7		✗	0.00279	0	0.997
60	natur_ga	3		✓	0	0	0
60	natur_ga	3		✗	0.00279	0	0.997
61	big_oil	58		✓	0	0	0
61	big_oil	58		✗	0.00517	0	0.995
62	year_ago	14		✓	0	0	0
62	year_ago	14		✗	0.00458	0	0.995
63	natur_ga	19		✓	0	0	0
63	natur_ga	19		✗	0.0197	0	0.98
64	local_economi	47		✓	0	0	0
64	local_economi	47		✗	0.776	0.000199	0.224
65	arab_state	57		✓	0	0	0
65	arab_state	57		✗	0.89	0.000597	0.109
66	oil_product	6		✓	0	0	0
66	oil_product	6		✗	0.83	0.00119	0.168
67	polit_pressur	15		✓	0	0	0
67	polit_pressur	15		✗	0.662	0.00279	0.335
68	unit_state	27		✓	0	0	0
68	unit_state	27		✗	0.149	0	0.851
69	american_presid	3		✓	0	0	0
69	american_presid	3		✗	0.106	0	0.894
70	billion_dollar	46		✓	0	0	0
70	billion_dollar	46		✗	0.0593	0.000796	0.94
71	american_oil	77		✓	0	0	0
71	american_oil	77		✗	0.0728	0	0.927
72	natur_ga	5		✓	0	0	0
72	natur_ga	5		✗	0.0388	0.000199	0.961
73	persian_gulf	33		✓	0	0	0
73	persian_gulf	33		✗	0.246	0.000995	0.753
74	world_war_ii	65		✓	0	0	0
74	world_war_ii	65		✗	0.285	0.00159	0.713
75	saudi_arabia	44		✓	0	0	0
75	saudi_arabia	44		✗	0.0243	0	0.976
76	__MONEY___billion	51		✓	0	0	0
76	__MONEY___billion	51		✗	0.0732	0.000199	0.927
77	pai_peopl	20		✓	0	0	0
77	pai_peopl	20		✗	0.541	0.00498	0.454
78	ga_price	44		✓	0	0	0
78	ga_price	44		✗	0.831	0	0.169
79	work_american	12		✓	0	0	0
79	work_american	12		✗	0.881	0.000199	0.119
80	ga_station	12		✓	0	0	0
80	ga_station	12		✗	0.873	0	0.127
81	pai___MONEY__	4		✓	0	0	0
81	pai___MONEY__	4		✗	0.38	0.000398	0.619
82	monei_left	9		✓	0	0	0
82	monei_left	9		✗	0.377	0.000597	0.623
83	pai___MONEY__	7		✓	0	0	0
83	pai___MONEY__	7		✗	0.369	0.000398	0.63
84	paid___MONEY__	26		✓	0	0	0
84	paid___MONEY__	26		✗	0.195	0.0179	0.787
85	barack_obama	12		✓	0	0	0
85	barack_obama	12		✗	0.191	0.0183	0.791
86	paid___MONEY__	5		✓	0	0	0
86	paid___MONEY__	5		✗	0.191	0.0181	0.79
87	obama_administr	5		✓	0	0	0
87	obama_administr	5		✗	0.00498	0.000398	0.995
88	fossil_fuel	15		✓	0	0	0
88	fossil_fuel	15		✗	0	0	1
89	north_dakota	53		✓	0	0	0
89	north_dakota	53		✗	0	0	1
90	privat_land	6		✓	0	0	0
90	privat_land	6		✗	0	0	1
91	north_dakota	18		✓	0	0	0
91	north_dakota	18		✗	0	0	1
92	oil_field	13		✓	0	0	0
92	oil_field	13		✗	0	0	1
93	wind_turbin	19		✓	0	0	0
93	wind_turbin	19		✗	0	0	1
94	presid_obama	7		✓	0	0	0
94	presid_obama	7		✗	0	0	1
95	produc___NUM__	57		✓	0	0	0
95	produc___NUM__	57		✗	0	0	1
96	oil_compani	36		✓	0	0	0
96	oil_compani	36		✗	0	0	1
97	obama_administr	10		✓	0	0	0
97	obama_administr	10		✗	0	0	1
98	averag_cost	91		✓	0	0	0
98	averag_cost	91		✗	0.00279	0	0.997
99	presid_obama	8		✓	0	0	0
99	presid_obama	8		✗	0.00597	0	0.994
100	environment_protect_agenc	23		✓	0	0	0
100	environment_protect_agenc	23		✗	0.0261	0	0.974
101	presid_obama	3		✓	0	0	0
101	presid_obama	3		✗	0.0302	0	0.97
102	gasolin_price	61		✓	0	0	0
102	gasolin_price	61		✗	0.836	0.000199	0.164
103	washington_state	36		✓	0	0	0
103	washington_state	36		✗	0.84	0.00199	0.158
104	home_state	42		✓	0	0	0
104	home_state	42		✗	0.831	0.0181	0.151
105	averag_american	70		✓	0	0	0
105	averag_american	70		✗	0.818	0.00458	0.178
106	good_case	8		✓	0	0	0
106	good_case	8		✗	0.67	0.00438	0.326
107	jimmi_carter	12		✓	0	0	0
107	jimmi_carter	12		✗	0.248	0	0.752
108	presid_obama	77		✓	0	0	0
108	presid_obama	77		✗	0.0115	0	0.988
109	american_energi	8		✓	0	0	0
109	american_energi	8		✗	0	0	1
110	exact_opposit	35		✓	0	0	0
110	exact_opposit	35		✗	0.0577	0.0149	0.927
111	american_peopl	76		✓	0	0	0
111	american_peopl	76		✗	0.168	0.0667	0.766
112	feder_govern	28		✓	0	0	0
112	feder_govern	28		✗	0.391	0.0782	0.531
113	__NUM___squar	54		✓	0	0	0
113	__NUM___squar	54		✗	0.642	0.0507	0.307
114	squar_mile	0		✓	0	0	0
114	squar_mile	0		✗	0.681	0.031	0.288
115	nation_park	4		✓	0	0	0
115	nation_park	4		✗	0.358	0.000597	0.641
116	polar_bear	2		✓	0	0	0
116	polar_bear	2		✗	0.216	0.000199	0.784
117	energi_independ	123		✓	0	0	0
117	energi_independ	123		✗	0.00378	0	0.996
118	nation_secur	2		✓	0	0	0
118	nation_secur	2		✗	0.00239	0	0.998
119	million_job	17		✓	0	0	0
119	million_job	17		✗	0	0	1
120	pai_job	9		✓	0	0	0
120	pai_job	9		✗	0.000398	0	1
121	manufactur_base	14		✓	0	0	0
121	manufactur_base	14		✗	0.000995	0.00119	0.998
122	energi_product	4		✓	0	0	0
122	energi_product	4		✗	0	0	1
123	due_process	10		✓	0	0	0
123	due_process	10		✗	0.000796	0.000199	0.999
124	feder_control	17		✓	0	0	0
124	feder_control	17		✗	0.000398	0	1
125	north_dakota	14		✓	0	0	0
125	north_dakota	14		✗	0	0	1
126	__NUM___trillion	12		✓	0	0	0
126	__NUM___trillion	12		✗	0.000796	0	0.999
127	__MONEY___trillion	5		✓	0	0	0
127	__MONEY___trillion	5		✗	0.0297	0.00776	0.963
128	feder_govern	9		✓	0	0	0
128	feder_govern	9		✗	0.00716	0.00677	0.986
129	tax_increas	3		✓	0	0	0
129	tax_increas	3		✗	0.000199	0.000199	1
130	capit_gain	20		✓	0	0	0
130	capit_gain	20		✗	0	0.0117	0.988
131	gain_tax	0		✓	0	0	0
131	gain_tax	0		✗	0	0.0117	0.988
132	unit_state	11		✓	0	0	0
132	unit_state	11		✗	0	0.00239	0.998
133	corpor_tax	24		✓	0	0	0
133	corpor_tax	24		✗	0	0	1
134	tax_rate	0		✓	0	0	0
134	tax_rate	0		✗	0	0	1
135	__MONEY___billion	4		✓	0	0	0
135	__MONEY___billion	4		✗	0.000398	0	1
136	back_home	7		✓	0	0	0
136	back_home	7		✗	0.0117	0	0.988
137	death_tax	22		✓	0	0	0
137	death_tax	22		✗	0.0131	0	0.987
138	job_creation	16		✓	0	0	0
138	job_creation	16		✗	0.359	0.000597	0.64
139	energi_compani	91		✓	0	0	0
139	energi_compani	91		✗	0.843	0.00159	0.156
140	american_manufactur	5		✓	0	0	0
140	american_manufactur	5		✗	0.927	0.000398	0.0728
141	la_vega	35		✓	0	0	0
141	la_vega	35		✗	0.849	0	0.151
142	date_back	39		✓	0	0	0
142	date_back	39		✗	0.702	0.000597	0.298
143	execut_order	21		✓	0	0	0
143	execut_order	21		✗	0.295	0	0.705
144	unit_state	14		✓	0	0	0
144	unit_state	14		✗	0.278	0	0.722
145	__NUM___year	23		✓	0	0	0
145	__NUM___year	23		✗	0.257	0.073	0.67
146	peopl_work	5		✓	0	0	0
146	peopl_work	5		✗	0.156	0.0539	0.79
147	make_monei	94		✓	0	0	0
147	make_monei	94		✗	0.0933	0.0318	0.875
148	nation_secur	19		✓	0	0	0
148	nation_secur	19		✗	0.14	0.000597	0.86
149	protect_agenc	19		✓	0	0	0
149	protect_agenc	19		✗	0.127	0	0.873
150	common_sens	11		✓	0	0	0
150	common_sens	11		✗	0.124	0	0.876
151	american_oil	30		✓	0	0	0
151	american_oil	30		✗	0.174	0.000199	0.826
152	nation_park	18		✓	0	0	0
152	nation_park	18		✗	0.254	0	0.746
153	nation_secur	39		✓	0	0	0
153	nation_secur	39		✗	0.27	0	0.73
154	peak_oil	40		✓	0	0	0
154	peak_oil	40		✗	0.311	0.00239	0.687
155	american_peopl	67		✓	0	0	0
155	american_peopl	67		✗	0.291	0.00219	0.706
156	washington_politician	16		✓	0	0	0
156	washington_politician	16		✗	0.26	0.000995	0.739
157	auto_compani	109		✓	0	0	0
157	auto_compani	109		✗	0.187	0.000995	0.812
158	american_peopl	8		✓	0	0	0
158	american_peopl	8		✗	0.158	0.000995	0.841
159	balanc_budget	105		✓	0	0	0
159	balanc_budget	105		✗	0.112	0	0.888
160	control_spend	4		✓	0	0	0
160	control_spend	4		✗	0.0884	0.000398	0.911
161	feder_govern	6		✓	0	0	0
161	feder_govern	6		✗	0.262	0.0308	0.707
162	tenth_amend	21		✓	0	0	0
162	tenth_amend	21		✗	0.546	0.00796	0.446
163	rick_perri	4		✓	0	0	0
163	rick_perri	4		✗	0.567	0.0171	0.416
164	return_power	9		✓	0	0	0
164	return_power	9		✗	0.576	0	0.424
165	local_govern	5		✓	0	0	0
165	local_govern	5		✗	0.578	0	0.422
166	move_back	7		✓	0	0	0
166	move_back	7		✗	0.575	0.00139	0.424
167	balanc_budget	3		✓	0	0	0
167	balanc_budget	3		✗	0.276	0.000199	0.724
168	presid_bill_clinton	20		✓	0	0	0
168	presid_bill_clinton	20		✗	0.269	0.000597	0.731
169	balanc_budget	6		✓	0	0	0
169	balanc_budget	6		✗	0.214	0	0.786
170	__MONEY___billion	14		✓	0	0	0
170	__MONEY___billion	14		✗	0.104	0	0.896
171	credit_card	29		✓	0	0	0
171	credit_card	29		✗	0.00915	0.000199	0.991
172	american_energi	17		✓	0	0	0
172	american_energi	17		✗	0	0	1
173	food_stamp	30		✓	0	0	0
173	food_stamp	30		✗	0.000796	0	0.999
174	public_hous	12		✓	0	0	0
174	public_hous	12		✗	0.00159	0.000199	0.998
175	pai_tax	23		✓	0	0	0
175	pai_tax	23		✗	0	0	1
176	govern_revenu	2		✓	0	0	0
176	govern_revenu	2		✗	0.000398	0.000398	0.999
177	north_dakota	70		✓	0	0	0
177	north_dakota	70		✗	0	0	1
178	__MONEY___billion	14		✓	0	0	0
178	__MONEY___billion	14		✗	0	0	1
179	tax_increas	10		✓	0	0	0
179	tax_increas	10		✗	0.00756	0	0.992
180	nation_secur	20		✓	0	0	0
180	nation_secur	20		✗	0.103	0.000199	0.896
181	saudi_arabia	19		✓	0	0	0
181	saudi_arabia	19		✗	0.00139	0	0.999
182	unit_state	22		✓	0	0	0
182	unit_state	22		✗	0.000995	0	0.999
183	save_monei	230		✓	0	0	0
183	save_monei	230		✗	0.00239	0	0.998
184	food_stamp	84		✓	0	0	0
184	food_stamp	84		✗	0	0	1
185	work_ethic	9		✓	0	0	0
185	work_ethic	9		✗	0	0	1
186	same_peopl	51		✓	0	0	0
186	same_peopl	51		✗	0	0	1
187	presid_reagan	4		✓	0	0	0
187	presid_reagan	4		✗	0.000796	0	0.999
188	soviet_empir	9		✓	0	0	0
188	soviet_empir	9		✗	0.00179	0.0121	0.986
189	same_peopl	8		✓	0	0	0
189	same_peopl	8		✗	0	0.000398	1
190	presid_reagan	6		✓	0	0	0
190	presid_reagan	6		✗	0	0	1
191	cut_tax	21		✓	0	0	0
191	cut_tax	21		✗	0	0	1
192	creat_job	4		✓	0	0	0
192	creat_job	4		✗	0	0	1
193	creat___NUM__	12		✓	0	0	0
193	creat___NUM__	12		✗	0	0.00259	0.997
194	__NUM___million	0		✓	0	0	0
194	__NUM___million	0		✗	0	1	0.000199
195	same_thing	12		✓	0	0	0
195	same_thing	12		✗	0	1	0.000199
196	__NUM___year	35		✓	0	0	0
196	__NUM___year	35		✗	0	0.999	0.000796
197	reform_welfar	8		✓	0	0	0
197	reform_welfar	8		✗	0	0.984	0.0155
198	american_histori	24		✓	0	0	0
198	american_histori	24		✗	0	0.995	0.00478
199	__NUM___million	2		✓	0	0	0
199	__NUM___million	2		✗	0	1	0
200	republican_side	8		✓	0	0	0
200	republican_side	8		✗	0.000199	0.999	0.000995
201	__NUM___year	18		✓	0	0	0
201	__NUM___year	18		✗	0.000995	0.992	0.00657
202	welfar_reform	12		✓	0	0	0
202	welfar_reform	12		✗	0.00716	0.154	0.839
203	tax_cut	36		✓	0	0	0
203	tax_cut	36		✗	0	0.0539	0.946
204	capit_gain	4		✓	0	0	0
204	capit_gain	4		✗	0	0.0241	0.976
205	gain_tax	0		✓	0	0	0
205	gain_tax	0		✗	0	0.0243	0.976
206	tax_cut	0		✓	0	0	0
206	tax_cut	0		✗	0	0.243	0.757
207	__NUM___million	6		✓	0	0	0
207	__NUM___million	6		✗	0	0.998	0.00179
208	washington_establish	54		✓	0	0	0
208	washington_establish	54		✗	0.000796	0.999	0.000199
209	york_time	14		✓	0	0	0
209	york_time	14		✗	0.191	0.791	0.0171
210	american_peopl	24		✓	0	0	0
210	american_peopl	24		✗	0.322	0.617	0.0619
211	peopl_bui	0		✓	0	0	0
211	peopl_bui	0		✗	0.416	0.287	0.297
212	long_histori	39		✓	0	0	0
212	long_histori	39		✗	0.44	0.0476	0.512
213	great_thing	4		✓	0	0	0
213	great_thing	4		✗	0.584	0.000796	0.415
214	nation_secur	35		✓	0	0	0
214	nation_secur	35		✗	0.769	0.000995	0.23
215	feder_budget	10		✓	0	0	0
215	feder_budget	10		✗	0.822	0.00478	0.174
216	roller_coaster	22		✓	0	0	0
216	roller_coaster	22		✗	0.939	0.00637	0.0547
217	economi_grow	62		✓	0	0	0
217	economi_grow	62		✗	0.928	0.00458	0.0679
218	nation_secur	7		✓	0	0	0
218	nation_secur	7		✗	0.884	0.00159	0.115
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	31

Newt Gingrich

Cue-lag representation